[Article] Simulation of Long-Term (1981–2100) Evolution of Heat Waves in Brussels Based on the MAR Regional Model.

🌡️ Heat waves in Brussels are changing faster than we think. I am pleased to share a peer-reviewed study analyzing how heat waves in Brussels may evolve from 1981 to 2100, based on high-resolution regional climate modeling.

Timmermans, G., Doutreloup, S., Fettweis, X., & Attia, S. (2024). Simulation of long-term (1981–2100) evolution of heat waves in Brussels based on the MAR regional model. Bulletin de la Société Géographique de Liège 🔗 https://lnkd.in/e3bfFxj7

🔍 What does the study show?

Using the MAR regional climate model, downscaling global climate scenarios to the city scale, the paper shows that under a high-emission pathway (SSP5-8.5):

🌙 Night-time heat and humidity increase sharply, worsening thermal stress

🏙️ Urban areas like Brussels are particularly exposed due to the urban heat island effect

🔍 What the simulations show?

⏳ Heat waves become significantly more frequent and longer, with events lasting 20–30 days by the end of the century under SSP5-8. 5.

🔥Peak heatwave temperatures average 32–36°C, and often exceed 40 °C, far beyond historical norms.

Perceived heat stress (Humidex, Heat Index) rises faster than air temperature itself, increasing health risks in dense urban areas.

What we call a “heat wave” today will become common weather later this century.

🏙️ Why this matters:

These results are critical for urban planning, building design, public health, and climate adaptation strategies. Brussels, like many European temperate-climate cities, must prepare for a future in which overheating is no longer an exception but a structural condition. Cities need climate-proof buildings, heat-resilient public spaces, and clear performance targets for summer comfort. Planning for this future must start now.

👏 Many thanks to my co-authors Guillaume Timmermans, Sébastien Doutreloup, Xavier Fettweis and to the Bulletin de la Société Géographique de Liège for publishing this work.

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